Much has been written about the subject of money management and wagering.  Although a lot of this written material is outstanding, much of it is ignored. We view betting on baseball as an investment, not a gamble.  You should too.

After many years of success we know that over time we will be profitable.  While losing days, months, and even an occasional losing season are possible (although we do not recall one), we are confident that over time we will be successful.

Therefore prudent money management and patience are all that is required to achieve the goal of showing a profit.

We are not in the business of wild promises. When discussing baseball betting, there is no “Game of the Month”, “Game of the Year”, or “Lock of the Century”.  Instead we release solid picks rated from 2 to 4 units.

If you read our Past Performance page you will see that we have averaged 29.91 units per season over the last 6 years. There can and will be losing streaks so it is important to wager according to your bankroll and temperament.  DO NOT OVER EXTEND YOURSELF.  Make a plan and stick to it.

We recommend that you establish your bankroll for your investment this baseball season and base your wagers off of this static bankroll.
 

Recommended Strategy (Middle of the Road)

Wager 1% per unit so each individual play is 2%, 3% or 4% of your initial bankroll.  Do not vary from this regardless of a winning or losing streak. Based on our 5-year average of +30 units that would equate to a 30% return (60% annualized).

Conservative Strategy

Wager 0.8% per unit so each individual play is 1.6%, 2.4% or 3.2% of your initial bankroll.  Do not vary from this regardless of a winning or losing streak. Based on our 6-year average of +30 units that would equate to a 24% return (48% annualized).

Aggressive Strategy

Wager 1.2% per unit so each individual play is 2.4%, 3.6% or 4.8% of your initial bankroll.  Do not vary from this regardless of a winning or losing streak. Based on our 6-year average of +30 units that would equate to a 36% return (72% annualized). WE CONSIDER THIS STRATEGY TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND DO NOT RECOMMEND IT.

Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal bet size to wager to achieve the greatest long term growth when investing in a series of positive expectation wagers. This wager size would be applied to the current bankroll after the last wager and is thus based on a dynamic or constantly updating bankroll.

Assuming an average money line of -1.10 and a win percentage of 55% the Kelly Criterion would recommend a wager of 5.5% of bankroll.  While this amount may maximize your return it will also lead to large swings in your bankroll (both up and down).  Many professionals, including The Baseball Handicapper, consider the Kelley Criterion to be too aggressive and suggest a wager size of one half (½) of the Kelley Criterion. This would equal 2.75%.  Given the expected weighting of our 2, 3 and 4 unit picks, we think this baseball betting strategy corresponds perfectly. 

However, it is our opinion that the incremental advantage of adjusting your bankroll after each event is not worth the additional effort and allows for the possibility of human error. 

WE STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU CHOOSE EITHER THE

CONSERVATIVE OR MIDDLE OF THE ROAD STRATEGIES